How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is another development in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the war is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.