🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|